Good Monday Morning!
FIFA world cup week is upon us and expect congestion in the host sites in Canada/US and Mexico for the next several weeks. Most significant weather event this week across the CONUS will the higher-than-normal opportunities of a several day several weather occurrences over the upper Midwest through the upper great lakes to the Ozark Plateau.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – A G3 geomagnetic storm till continue today, backing off to a G2 storm on Tuesday. No Critical weather days are in effect currently, however that is likely to change on Tuesday due to the possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak.
CONUS severe weather outlook – today looks to be quietist day through Thursday. On Tuesday, an enhanced risk is forecast from Central SD to Southern Manitoba. Very large hail, tornadoes a few of which could be strong and damaging wind gusts are very likely. On Wednesday, another enhanced risk will exist from Eastern Iowa to Northern WI, with very large hail possible along with tornadoes and damaging winds. Day 4, Thursday also looks very active from Southern WI to STL where all types of severe weather are possible. By Friday, significant severe outbreaks seem less likely.
Tropical weather outlook – West Pacific is quiet. Nearly stationary TS Boris, 85 miles Se of Acapulco, Mexico, is expected to reach the coast of Guerrero, Mexico by this evening, then will quickly dissipate. Primary concern will be very heavy rain along with coastline with amounts in excess of 8 inches possible. Another suspect area offshore Nicaragua, will likely develop into a TD and hug the coast for the remainder of the week as it pushes off slowly to the NW.
Europe outlook – on Wednesday, no significant frontal systems are present over much of Central and Western Europe. A cold upper-level trough will be located over the North Sea and with daytime heating widespread shower activity is likely over much of Ireland and the UK. On Thursday, a warm front through the UK will help promote widespread shower activity over the island with isolated thunderstorms over the Balkans and portions of Germany and Poland.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Wednesday, an upper-level trough over Eastern Newfoundland and another upper-level low over the Northern North Sea will force the jet to lie from Bermuda to Northern France with velocities around 100 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
