Good Friday Morning,
The primary runway at VNY will be closed nightly from 0630 until 1400z from 02/23 until 02/25. Expect possible arrival regulations at EGLF and EGKB due to increased demand to and from the ski destinations this weekend. In fact, EGLF looks to be very busy this weekend with a holiday weekend expected. Model differences still exist concerning the possible storm system just offshore the Mid Atlantic on Sunday into Monday morning. I have included a few images from the operational 06z GFS model and the 06z EURO model as comparisons. If you have a flight destined to this region on Sunday and early Monday it might be in your best interests to check back as delays are very likely if the worst case pans out with heavy snow and high winds.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through the weekend.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a marginal risk will exist on Saturday from SE AL to the CHS area otherwise a relatively quiet period is expected into the middle of next week.
Tropical weather outlook – TC Horacio, 500 miles SSE of Diego Garcia, will likely intensify fairly rapidly over the next few days and pass just to the East of Port Mathurin around 21z on the 23rd as a CAT 2 storm. It appears as if it will pass well to the East of Mauritius early next week as a CAT 3 cyclone.
Europe outlook – a series of cold fronts over Western Europe will usher in much milder Atlantic air over much of the continent through early next week. Chances of snow and sub-freezing temperatures will be greatly reduced as above normal temperatures will dominate underneath the upper-level ridge especially by Tuesday and Wednesday.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Sunday, a low latitude zonal flow will continue from the Mid Atlantic States to Western France with peak velocities of 125 knots. This pattern will likely buckle early next week in association with the building upper-level ridge over Western Europe.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
