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Aviation Weather June 29, 2022

Good Wednesday Morning! 

As we head into the Fourth of July weekend, we have plenty to discuss this morning with an emphasis on tropical weather. 

Always like to start out Wednesday with the global tropics hazards outlooks published by the Climate Prediction Center. The next week looks to be active in terms of tropical activity with a few hot spots in the Caribbean Sea and the Western Pacific. 

Tropical outlook
In the West Pacific 97w, located 460nm to the SSE of Hong Kong is likely to become a tropical cyclone over the next few days. I have included a few images from both the GFS and the EURO model showing possible outcomes. All pretty much agree with a track South of Hong Kong by early this weekend. GFS remains very aggressive with intensification. Not concerned about the East Pacific. In the Atlantic we have a couple of items of concern. Potential cyclone two continues to move very quickly to the West at 26 knots which has not allowed it to close off and become and official tropical cyclone. Indications are that it will make landfall in Eastern Nicaragua sometime Friday afternoon based on the latest model consensus. 

North Atlantic jet stream analysis: A zonal flow will continue for the next several days per the latest GFS model. Velocities remain fairly light which is not surprising for early summer.

Severe weather outlook: Typical summertime weather prevails over much of the CONUS with the best chance of severe weather will be in the Northern Plains this afternoon and tonight. Thereafter no signals for any significant severe weather outbreaks. 

Over Europe, a weak upper-level trough continues over the UK with ridging in the central part of the continent. This pattern is likely to hold for the next few days.  

For those of us in the Houston area I have included a few images from the latest EURO model showing the amount of moisture (PWAT) values for Friday with amounts exceeding 2.25 inches, which is very high. I have also included a graphic with expected rainfall amounts. The EURO likes to keep the heaviest rain just offshore, while the GFS has it more inland and the NAM model has amounts > 9 inches just offshore too. We will have to keep a close eye on this over the next few days.

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Images courtesy of wxcharts.compivotalweather.comtropicaltidbits.com, Australian met office,
weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, and the joint typhoon warning center.

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