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Aviation Weather May 15, 2024

Good Wednesday Morning,

SBPA airport, Porto Alegre, Brazil, will remain closed until 05/31 per the latest notam (K0518/24). Industrial action at NTAA from 17z on the 16th of May until 17z on the 17th of May. Overflights will be permitted. Notam A0524/24 applies. NWWW airport, Noumea, New Caledonia remains closed until at least 22z on the 16th due to violence. There is also no JET A1 fuel until at least 05/23. MYNN airport, Nassau, Bahamas has re-opened after smoke from nearby forest fires has calmed down.

Long term tropical outlook – over the next few weeks the regions around the Philippines and the Bay of Bengal remained favored for tropical cyclone based on the latest model blend forecasts. Heat wave may continue next week for much of central and Northern Mexico into South Texas which is putting a strain on the power grid.

Tropical outlook –

West Pacific East Pacific / Indian Ocean basin – invest area 92S, to the North of Madagascar has a low likely hood of development over the next 24 hours. Computer models in the longer range show slight development as it remains nearly stationary.

Eastern Pacific– low pressure may form several hundred miles to the South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later on this week and move slowly to the WNW. It will remain south of the coast of Mexico.

US Severe weather outlook -slight to enhanced risks are possible through Friday over much of the South central to SE USA. Significant airport delays are possible in both the Dallas and Houston areas Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours.

Europe analysis – both level 1 and 2 alerts have been issued for Thursday for portions of central Europe due to abundant synoptic-scale forcing along the stationary front and good upper-level support with the upper-level low in the Bay of Biscay. Primary threats will be heavy rain, high winds and large hail. With the upper-level trough remaining in the area through at least Friday expect daytime thunderstorms possible.

North Atlantic jet stream analysis – FL 390 – general zonal flow will continue through the end of the week with moderate velocities.

Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer polar/tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

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