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Aviation Weather May 26, 2023

Good Friday Morning!

Plenty to discuss as we enter the Memorial Day weekend. 
Expect lots of traffic up and down the East coast this weekend with possible delays due to offshore thunderstorms in the SE USA associated with the non-tropical low which will move inland early Sunday morning. Still having issues for GA traffic at both las/bos. Check notams carefully. EDDH, Hamburg, Germany has closed one of their two runways until the end of the June. Expect delays there.

Tropical outlook

Indian Ocean basin / South Pacific / NW Pacific – Super typhoon Mawar located 880nm SE of Kadena AFB continues to move to the west at 12 knots. Under nearly ideal conditions it is expected to remain very intense through 72 hours, thereafter a slow weakening trend will begin. It still appears it will veer off to the NE of the Philippines and go east of Taiwan. I have included a few model forecasts from the EURO and the GFS for examples.

Atlantic/Eastern Pacific – A broad and weak low-pressure area located East of the NE coast of Florida shows very little potential for development this weekend. Gale and storm warnings remain in place for this area.

Severe weather outlook for the CONUS – this afternoon looks to be very active over Eastern NM with an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms, likely to bring large hail and gusty winds. Opportunities for severe weather diminish by early next week.

Severe weather outlook for Europe – no official forecast issued. Lightning for the next few days will be concentrated mainly over Southern Europe.

Europe – large high-pressure area remains firmly in control over much of central and Northern Europe through the weekend. In fact, the upper-level ridge shows little sign of breaking down even towards the middle of next week. Fine weather will result.

Images courtesy of, Australian met office, UK met office weather prediction center, aviation weather center,, and the joint typhoon warning center.

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