Good Wednesday Morning,
Please check notams carefully at NTAA, Papeete, French Polynesia for airport hours. VABB, Mumbai, India will be completely closed on 11/20 from 0530z until 1130z for the annual post-monsoon runway maintenance. Jet A1 fuel supply remains very limited at NCRG until 11/21. The G20 summit is set to take place in Johannesburg on November 22nd until November 23rd. Expect tight slot and parking controls at both FAOR/FALA.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – a critical weather day remains in effect until 12z Thursday due to the severe G4 Geomagnetic storm currently taking place. It is expected to become a strong G3 storm tomorrow, finally becoming a minor storm by Friday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TS Fung-Wong, 500 miles WSW of Kadena AFB will continue to weaken as it passes over SE Taiwan currently. It will dissipate over the next 24-48 hours with no significant impacts.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no severe weather expected through the weekend.
Europe outlook – on Thursday, deep low pressure, located 600 miles NW of Lisbon, along with a cold front extending into Portugal will provide the opportunity for widespread showers, heavy at times to much of Portugal and Western Spain through Friday. This modest atmospheric river will also promote a level one alert for heavy rain along with an isolated tornado. Heavy rain and low ifr conditions are likely over much of the UK and Ireland from Thursday night to Saturday morning due to a stalled warm front over the English Channel and significant over running along with gusty East winds. Colder air will follow into early next week over this region. ATC delays could be significant, especially on Friday.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – extremely interesting pattern setting up for Friday into the weekend with a very strong upper-level ridge to the West of Iceland along with the upper-level low to the NW of Portugal along with an upper-level trough over Eastern Quebec. Net result is that the East bound flights will have a near zero wind factor and the West bound flights will also have very light headwinds. Severe TURBC will also be an issue especially through tonight with relatively high EDR values. It does appear to get better on Thursday.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
