Good Friday Morning,
EUROCONTROL continues to monitor the reentry of Kosmos 482 a Soviet era space craft, that will enter the atmosphere around May 10th. It may land in the Atlantic off the coast of North Africa or possibly somewhere in Europe. Thunderstorms are expected over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday in association with a surface low and frontal system. Gulf route closures are likely. Once again expect significant delays at ewr/teb/mmu from 12z until 03z today due to forecasted weather and staffing issues. TMIS are possible also at cyul/cyyc and cyvr.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Sunday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – suspect area 93P, 285 miles NNE of Gove Airport, Australia, has a medium chance of development over the next 24 hours. Latest EURO model moves the system generally to the South over the next few days with a slow increase in intensity. However it is not expected to impact Northern Australia through early next week.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a slight risk exists today over Eastern FL and a small portion of Eastern NC. The weekend looks fairly quiet with only marginal chances.
Europe outlook – a surface and upper-level closed low will be present on Saturday over NW Portugal. This will help instigate showers and thunderstorms over Portugal and Spain on Saturday while high pressure will dominate from the UK to Germany. On Sunday this system will move slowly North and impact much of Western France with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Monday gets interesting with the upper level low over the Northern Bay of Biscay and this create a good chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Southern UK and France which will likely create delays in their airspace.
North Atlantic jet stream forecast – on Mother’s Day and early next week a non-descript jet stream pattern will continue courtesy of an upper-level trough over Eastern Canada and the Bay of Biscay.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
