Good Wednesday Morning,
Getting notification of a possible French strike on July 3rd and 4th. Current thinking is that it will affect LFMM and LFFF airspaces in addition to flights to Nice. This afternoon into this evening will be problematic across French airspace with extensive delays anticipated due to clustered thunderstorms with tops > FL 400 anticipated. NCRG, Rarotonga, Cook Islands continue to experience a shortage of Jet A1 fuel until 04 July. Please refer to notam P0373/25. Expect high volume traffic this weekend due to UFC 317 at las. It appears as if TLV airport has re-opened to all traffic effective immediately. Airport closure notams have been removed.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days are noted through Friday. G2 geomagnetic storm is forecast today, with no storms forecast on Thursday and Friday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area EP95, offshore of Central America, on the Pacific side, has a high likelihood of development later on this week as it moves slowly to the NW. No issues with TD Sepat, offshore Eastern Japan. TD03W, 235 miles SSW of Hong Kong, moving NW at 12 knots. No real issues expected with this weak storm as it will be inland in 24 hours from now.
CONUS severe weather outlook – for today, the most impactful region affected by severe thunderstorms later on today will be the Carolinas where damaging winds will be the main concern. Activity on Thursday will be less intense, however by Friday severe thunderstorms are possible in the Northern Plains.
Europe outlook – estofex is forecasting a significant severe weather event for much of France this afternoon into this evening due to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Expecting another active day on Thursday as a series of cold fronts will likely trigger thunderstorms over portions of central Europe, therefore you can anticipate enroute delays if crossing this airspace. Expect less thunderstorm activity on Friday as an upper level ridge builds into Western Europe, helping to suppress precipitations chances.
Canadian smoke model forecast – no impacts to the CONUS through Friday.
Long range tropical outlook – it appears that week’s 2 and 3 will be dominated possible TC formation mainly in the Western Pacific.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
