Good Wednesday Morning,
Update to the French strike. It appears to be a go from 05z on the 03rd until 05z on the 05th. Significant disruptions expected across the country. Nice will be one of the hardest airports hit. A conference call will be held today at 1630z to discuss further. Very deep area of low pressure to the East of Sydney will slowly move East over the next few days and this will allow for improving weather on the East Coast of Australia. Heavy snow over the mountains of New Zealand will be likely on Wednesday and Thursday along with heavy rain at lower elevations along with gusty winds as this low pressure area approaches the island early Saturday.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Friday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TD four, 260 miles ESE of Chichi Jima, will remain very weak and will pass well East of Japan over the next few days. Invest area 98W, 100 miles NE of Casiguran, Philippines has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Computer models remain muted on future development. All tropical storm watches have been dropped for Hurricane Flossie, 315 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It is not expected to affect any land masses and will pass well to the SW of MMSD over the next 24 hours. An area of low pressure may form over the SE USA over the weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Latest EURO and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate weak development possible to the NE of JAX over the weekend. Latest 120-hour QPF indicates heavy rain possible through early next week from the Tampa area to offshore the Carolinas.
CONUS severe weather outlook – typical early July pattern continues with marginal to slight risk areas exist over large portions of the country due to daytime heating and the lack of any significant forcing to create widespread outbreaks.
Europe outlook – for today, a significant severe thunderstorm risk is likely from NE France to Denmark with damaging wind gusts along a cold front and weak upper-level trough. For Thursday, low pressure area to the West of Stockholm, will have a cold front associated with it extending through Central France to North Central Spain. Thunderstorms are possible along the front with the Alps and Northern Spain favored for development. On Friday favored areas will be over Northern Spain to the Balkans.
Canadian smoke model forecast – no issues for the CONUS.
Long range tropical outlook – over the next 2 to 3 weeks the favored area for tropical development remains to the East and NE of the Philippines, generally North of 20N. Interestingly below normal rainfall chances remain fairly high over much of Latin America to the Eastern Caribbean Sea region.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
