Good Wednesday Morning,
Per BIRD notam A0624/25 there is temporary jet A1 supply constraints through the weekend at Iceland aerodromes. Might want to plan accordingly. Through the 20th of Sept LTBA will have various closure hours due to TekNoFest 2025 events. Significant French strike is planned from 09/18 04z until 09/19 06z. Highly advisable to avoid Marseille East Sector where high delays are anticipated. Anyone heading to the VHHH area next week may have to reconsider their plans with a possible typhoon affecting the region with very heavy rain and winds in excess of 75 knots possible.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Friday for the CONUS.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TD 23W, 200 miles North of Manila will likely pass just to the North of Hong Kong on the 19th around 12z as a low-end tropical storm with no major impacts expected. Invest area 90W, 260 miles NNW of Yap, has a moderate chance of developing in the next 24 hours. Invest area 91W, 200 miles North of Wake Island, has a low chance of developing in the next 24 hours. No impacts expected. New formed TD Seven, will pass well to the North of the Leeward Islands early Saturday. Much too early to tell if it will impact Bermuda early next week.
CONUS severe weather outlook – most active day in the next seven will be today with a slight risk over the South-Central high plains.
Europe outlook – on Thursday the main synoptic feature will be strong high pressure over Switzerland tied to a well-defined upper-level ridge over Southern France. On Friday the upper-level ridge will be centered over Corsica which will allow for fairly good weather over the continent. On Saturday a fairly strong and cold upper-level trough will be over Ireland, and this will allow for periods of showers and gusty winds from Ireland to Scotland as a surface low deepens to the NW of Brest.
Long range tropical outlook – above normal temperatures are featured next week across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS due to upper-level ridging. Favored areas for TS development remain over the Eastern Pacific, just offshore Mexico, and in the Western Pacific and the Northern Indian Ocean for next week.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Friday, the upper-level ridge over Corsica and the upper-level trough to the West of Ireland will strongly influence the jet stream pattern. On Saturday, several upper-level troughs and ridges will allow for a non-zonal flow, so East bound enroute times will not be great.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
