Good Monday Morning,
Expect high volume operations until 11/25 at LAS due the formula 1 race. EUROCONTROL has advised that a volcanic ash advisory emergency exercise will take place tomorrow from 08 to 16z in support of volcano KATLA. Several sigmets and notams will be clearly identified as “EXERCISE”. GA flights are now allowed at all 12 US airports effective immediately which is great news.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Wednesday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area 97S, 175 miles WNW of Darwin has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Conditions remain favorable for development due to very light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Models are in general agreement about development, but no imminent landfall is expected over the next three days.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no severe weather outbreaks are expected through Wednesday.
Europe outlook – biggest story this week will be the arctic outbreak expected to hit much of NW Europe Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. This will be the first significant cold snap of the year with sub-freezing temperatures likely during the overnight hours along with scattered snow showers, helped by the very cold temperatures aloft and low freezing levels.
Significant snow is also expected in the Alps. The jet will buckle behind this cold frontal passage with a very strong NW flow anticipated by midweek. Later on, this week, on Friday a cut off low may develop to the West of Italy bringing an increased chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to this region along with heavy mountain snow to the Balkans.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – winds over the region continue to remain meridional through mid-week due to an upper-level low over Northern Labrador and the upper-level trough over the North Sea with upper-level ridging over the Central Atlantic. A significant pattern shift is likely by Friday with a more zonal flow set to take place.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
