Good Friday Morning!
Presidential TFR likely to be issued shortly for PANC for 12 May as the President goes to China next week. EGPE, Inverness, Scotland will have several periods of closures for the next few weeks due to staff shortages. Several notams have been issued. In Eastern Malaysia, Mt Dukono, was producing ash to FL 420 earlier, but based on the latest bulletins it appears to be only to 10,000 feet now drifting to the West. The residual ash will remain well East of WAMM airport. Italy strike appears to be on track for May 11th between 08z and 16z. Overflights will not be affected. ATS will likely be affected in the LIBB/LIMM and LIRR areas of responsibility.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – none through Sunday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – through Sunday at least a slight risk of severe thunderstorms will continue from Central and North TX through portions of Western and Central OK. Some super cells are possible with minor ATC re routes likely through Sunday at least.
Tropical weather outlook – TS Hagupit, 70 miles SE of YAP is continuing to move to the West at 10 knots. The system will likely weaken over the next few days with no land masses expected to be impacted from this fairly weak system.
Europe outlook – on Saturday at 12z, a fairly deep area of low pressure will be situated 375 miles West of Lisbon, Portugal, with an occluded front extending from the low to Western Spain. With daytime heating fairly good coverage of showers and thunderstorms are likely over much of Portugal and Spain with no severe weather. Freezing level at LEMD, mid-day will be around 9,000 feet. On Sunday the low will weaken and move slowly to the NE. Fairly good coverage of daytime showers and thunderstorms will be common from Spain/Portugal to France and Northern Italy with high pressure over Scotland resulting in a broad Easterly flow over the UK. I would expect some enroute delays on Sunday due to the thunderstorms. Monday does not look good either, with fairly good coverage of showers and thunderstorms over much of Central Europe as a strong cold front and upper-level trough approach the region from the North Sea. Delays could be excessive.
North Atlantic Jet stream – very unorthodox jet stream pattern is likely on Sunday with an upper-level ridge in the mid-Atlantic and an upper-level trough from the UK to the Azores. As a result, very light winds will be present, generally North of 40N. On Monday the pattern is very unusual with an upper-level low remaining near the Azores and an East/West ridge along 50N.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
