Good Wednesday Morning,
With the Artemis II Space Launch expected this evening, several airspace closures are noted offshore the East Coast and routes from SOCAL to Hawaii. Primary launch window will be from 2224z until 0312z. Backup will be tomorrow between 2322z and 0410z. I have included a sounding for XMR for 22z today for reference. Good news is that the weather looks good this evening for the launch. Prague, LKPR, has a significant runway closure until 14 August. Runway 06/24 is closed. Runway 12/30 will then be the only runway available. Please see details below regarding storm Erminio which will be affecting SE Europe through Friday morning. No sign of a PBI TFR this weekend.
Critical weather days – no critical weather days or geomagnetic storms are expected through Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is likely today across portions of the Southern and Central Plains. Large hail, and supercells are possible. Slight risk exists on Thursday from the STL area to the Chicago area to the Detroit area. Good Friday looks very active with an enhanced risk over portions of Northern MO to Iowa where very large hail, severe winds and tornadoes will be possible.
Tropical weather outlook – invest area 99S, 200 miles ESE of Diego Garcia has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. A few of the computer models intensify the system into a CAT 2 or greater cyclone over the next 72 hours as it moves to the South with no impact to any islands at this point.
Europe outlook – storm Erminio, located over Southern Sicily today, will move slowly East over the next 24 hours. Accompanying the low, will be widespread gusty winds along with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms as the upper-level low will remain parked over the Ionian Sea. On Friday the low will weaken and move slowly to the Northeast. On Saturday, a very deep area of low pressure will be approaching Ireland/Northern Ireland and Scotland. A very good chance of rain, however elevation snow in Scotland, and with very strong and gusty winds will be present. The weather will improve after 12z Easter Sunday as the low accelerates to the Northern North Sea.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Good Friday, a zonal flow will prevail from Ontario to Ireland with velocities of 125 knots over Newfoundland. This pattern will continue through Friday.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
