Good Friday Morning,
Per ZSHA fir notam A0881/26, Shanghai FIR, several large military areas have been established until May 6th. Fortunately waypoint Lamen remains unaffected. Airspace is bounded by the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. BGQO will open on 04/17 to replace BGBW in Southern Greenland. PPR must be obtained at least 12 hours prior to arrival. National industrial action continues at major aerodromes in Italy until 1500UTC today. Flash flood watches continue for much of Hawaii until this afternoon. Closed upper-level low will remain to the NW of the islands with PWAT values 2 to 4 standard deviations above the mean unfortunately which will allow heavy rain to continue through at least early next week. Remainder that GA flights are not authorized to arrive into MBPV from 16z and 20z on Saturday’s until at least the 30th of April.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – enhanced caution has been declared until 06z tonight due to flooding across Hawaii. NOSIG geomagnetic storms through Sunday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – slight risks exist through the weekend mainly for portions West TX to Western OK. Expect little change in aerial coverage through early next week.
Tropical weather outlook – TS Sinlaku, 500 miles SE of Andersen AFB, will likely intensify fairly quickly over the next 24 hours as it passes very close to Guam around 00z on 04/14 has a powerful Cat 3 cyclone. TC Maila, 750 miles NE of Cairns, Australia, will continue to weaken quickly due to cold water upwelling. Subtropical storm 31P, 400 miles NE of Auckland will be a high impact storm for the North Island of New Zealand from 06z Saturday through 06z Sunday with very high winds and heavy rain. Behind the system with cold air aloft some snow is possible in the Southern Alps early next week.
Europe outlook – on Saturday, at 12z, deep low pressure (960mb) will be located 350 miles NW of Shannon, Ireland, with the associated cold front from just East of the UK to Portugal. Some showers will accompany the front; however significant rain accumulations remain unlikely. On Sunday, the occluded low will weaken considerably and will be situated just to the North of Scotland. Showers are likely from Eastern Spain to Eastern France on Sunday; however they should remain fairly light.
North Atlantic Jet stream – mid day Sunday – ridging to the West of the Azores in combination with an upper-level trough midway between Scotland and Iceland will force the jet into more a wavy pattern with a SW to NW jet dominating across the central Atlantic. This pattern should continue until early next week.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
