Good Monday Morning,

With one of the primary runways closed at EWR, expect possible ground stops/delays after 17z today. Very deep North Atlantic low to the East of Newfoundland and a cold Northerly flow will create low ifr conditions at yqx/yyt through tomorrow. CYYR will remain a much better choice for an ETP airport.

Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days through Wednesday. A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm is predicted for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical cyclone outlook – Relatively weak TC 31P, 400 miles East of Darwin, is currently moving WNW at 09 knots. It is expected to remain fairly weak as it skirts across Northern Australia over the next couple of days.

CONUS severe weather outlook – Tuesday looks to be the most active day this week with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains to Southern KS.

Europe outlook – on Tuesday a fairly well-defined surface low pressure area will be located 250 miles NW of Shannon, Ireland. Showers, moderate at times will be likely on Tuesday over Ireland and Northern Ireland. By 12z Wednesday, this surface low and a closed off upper-level low will be just to the SE of London area providing a good opportunity for showers and isolated daytime thunderstorms to a large portion of Western Europe at that time. On Thursday, look for good opportunities for showers and isolated thunderstorms to a large portion of central Europe with the broad upper-level trough in place.

North Atlantic jet stream forecast – multiple upper-level lows to the East of Newfoundland, the Canary Islands, and over Central Europe on Wednesday will allow for a split flow jet stream with the primary jet running from Maine to the Azores to Ireland with velocities less than 100 knots on Wednesday. Expect little change to this overall pattern on Thursday.

Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.