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Aviation Weather December 17, 2025

Good Wednesday Morning,

Official TFR has been issued for PBI from 2330 local on 12/19 to 1830 local on 01/04/26. FXE and SUA will not be impacted.

Expect significant delays for South bound flights this weekend through the JAX/MIA airspace as the holiday traffic ramps up. Deep low pressure across North Central MN on Thursday morning will likely create blizzard conditions over Eastern ND and NW MN with winds to 65 knots possible. Atmospheric river will continue to bring heavy rain to the Pacific NW along with very heavy snow over Western BC and the Southern Canadian Rockies.

Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days or geomagnetic storms are forecast through Friday.

CONUS severe weather outlook – no significant severe weather outlooks are anticipated through the weekend.

Tropical weather outlook – TC Bakung, 240 miles West of the Cocos Islands, will move slowly South over the next several days with no impacts to any land masses. Invest area 93S, 450 miles East of Christmas Island, has a high chance of developing over the next 18 to 24 hours. Models are in general agreement it will move to the West and remain south of the island fortunately.

Europe outlook – on Thursday, the combination of a warm front over the Southern UK and a warm and moist South Westerly flow will help create periods of heavy rain over much of the Southern UK ending by the evening as the front moves quickly East. On Friday the front will stretch from Eastern Denmark to Southern Portugal with only a few light showers along the front. Upper-level ridging continues over Eastern Europe along with surface high pressure will continue to promote overnight fog/freezing fog and low ifr conditions.

North Atlantic jet stream analysis – with the lack of significant upper-level ridges/troughs over this region the primary jet will reside from Eastern NC to Goose Bay to North of the Azores with peak velocities from 100 to 120 knots. Expect significant changes to the jet stream pattern over the weekend and into early next week.


Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

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