Good Friday Morning,
As expected, expect significant delays into early next week at the ski country airports and for the snowbird flights due to holiday volume. Plan accordingly. BGGH, Nuuk, Greenland has extended their GA ban until 01/31/26 at 23z per notam A1959/25. You must also get a PPR if you plan on using BGGH as an alternate airport for GA flights until the end of January too. EIDW, Dublin will be closed on Christmas day per notam A2898/25. Please check notams carefully for RIL and other ski country airports concerning ski season planning and preferred routes. Finally, it would be highly advisable to check the NAS status page for expected high delays in the NE and Mid-Atlantic states through tonight due to volume and unfavorable weather conditions.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – critical weather day through 12z Saturday due to wildfire operations in from Eastern CO to SE WY. No geomagnetic storms are forecast.
CONUS severe weather outlook – marginal risk of severe over the Mid-Atlantic states today due to a surging cold front and fairly strong upper-level dynamics. Next week appears to be very quiet.
Tropical weather outlook – TC 09S, 660 miles NNW of Learmonth, Australia, will likely intensify over the next several days as it tracks well to the South of the Christmas and Cocos Islands.
Europe outlook – will jump ahead to the middle of next week where a major pattern shift is going to take place over much of central and Northern Europe. Blocking upper-level ridge will set up from Iceland to Norway along with a strong surface high which will allow for a broad Easterly flow to set up with overcast and cold conditions but no indications of any snow at this time. Further South, a series of upper-level lows and surface low pressure areas will bring unsettled weather over Italy and the Balkans. Snowfall amounts will be fairly light in the Alps through Christmas day.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Sunday, an upper-level trough over Ireland will help foster a fairly strong NW jet from Iceland to Southern Western Spain. Early next week a more zonal flow will initiate, with the primary jet from the Southern Great lake states to BDA to YYT to Western Spain with velocities in excess of 110 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
