Good Monday Morning,
Per Notam A3335/25 OERK, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is having a shortage of fuel until at least 21z today and cannot be used as an alternate aerodrome also. A significant rainfall event is likely for portions of SOCAL including the LAX area through this weekend with rainfall totals from 5 to 10 inches likely. I would not be surprised to see significant airport delays at LAX on Christmas Eve. Drier weather is likely over the weekend. Delays are also likely at YYZ and YUL on Tuesday with the approach of a warm front and associated periods of light snow becoming light rain by mid-morning. EICK, Cork, Ireland, will be closed from 23z on 12/24 to 0001z on 12/26. Wintertime smoke and fog have settled into VIDP with visibilities down to 100 meters at times during the overnight hours.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no geomagnetic storms are forecast through mid-week. A CWD might be necessary on Wednesday due to expected heavy rainfall over SOCAL.
CONUS severe weather outlook – marginal risk of severe thunderstorms will exist over portions of California on Christmas Eve, due to the presence of an upper-level trough and relatively cold mid-level temperatures.
Tropical weather outlook – TC 09S, 300 miles East of Cocos Islands (YPCC), will unfortunately pass very close to the island around 06z on 12/25 as a high-end tropical storm. Our in-house weather product is indicating wind gusts likely on Christmas Day of around 50 knots with improving weather on Boxing Day. No airport closures indicated yet on the FAA notam site.
Europe outlook – a cold upper-level low will be located over France on Wednesday and this in combination of a blocking ridge over Scandinavia will allow for cold and blustery Easterly flow over much of Northern and Central Europe. This pattern will most likely continue through the weekend. There are no strong signals for snow in the UK at this time as the moisture is concentrated to the lower part of the atmosphere. Further to the South an upper-level disturbance along with surface low pressure over Corsica on Wednesday will help initiate rain and mountain snow to this part of the continent. Snowfall amounts do not look excessive at this time.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Wednesday, an upper-level trough from YFB to YYT along with another upper-level trough over Italy will force the jet stream into a very meridional pattern with velocities in excess of 125 knots. No significant change is expected later on this week.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
