Good Monday Morning,
Yellow weather warnings have been issued by the UK met office from Thursday morning through Friday night for portions of Scotland for snow and ice. Expect another busy day over the US airspace with delays likely over much of the NE along with the ski country airports. Mt Etna has been erupting over the past several days and is currently under a RED alert. Eruption is on going with tops of the ash to FL 160 drifting to the NNW. For updates, please refer to the Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Center.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no severe weather outbreaks are expected through the end of the week.
Tropical weather outlook – TC Grant, 700 miles Southeast of Diego Garcia, continues to exceed expectations, as it passes well to the South of Diego Garcia on New Years Eve. TC Hayley, 220 miles NW of Broome, Australia, with a max intensity of 60 knots, moving SSW at 05 knots will likely intensify over the next day or so before weakening just before landfall well to the North of Broome on New Years Eve.
Europe outlook – on Tuesday, very strong high pressure will prevail from the Central UK to just South of Iceland while deep low pressure resides near the Moscow area. Thus, on Tuesday, very little sensible weather will be occurring over the continent. On Wednesday, high pressure will be centered over Ireland while low pressure will reside over Eastern Turkey, with fairly widespread snowfall occurring in the vicinity of the low. Later on, this week, into the weekend the upper-level ridge over Western Europe will retrograde while a cold NW flow will take over due to an upper-level low over Denmark.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – a very unorthodox pattern will continue midweek with an upper-level low over Quebec and the upper-level ridge over the Eastern Atlantic. This will result in the primary jet residing from MYNN to YYT to YFB with velocities around 125 knots. Very light winds will persist for the Westbound flights. Expect little overall change to this pattern into early January.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
