Good Friday Morning,
Aspen, CO, ASE will be closed from April 23rd until May 21st for their annual maintenance. Please see the details below regarding storm Dave which will be a high impact storm for Scotland Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Also, just received notification that EGGW will only have 10 nighttime slots available per month from 01 June until 30 September. Nighttime period is defined as 2300 local until 0659 local. Teams are actively troubleshooting a nationwide issue with METAR availability since about 0630Z due to dataflow degradation between the NWS and the FAA. An update will be provided when more information is available. Five-minute metars are still available, however.
Critical weather days – none through Sunday. A g2 geomagnetic storm is forecast for Saturday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – the highest chances of severe weather for the next three days will occur today with an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from MCI to DSM. An extensive line of severe thunderstorms is likely from Iowa to Oklahoma to NW TX later on this afternoon with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. Some TRANSCON flights will likely have to be rerouted. Confidence remains low about the possibility of severe weather next week over much of the CONUS.
Tropical weather outlook – TC Indusa, 950 miles ENE of Port Louis, also known as 37U by the Australian met office will pass well to the East of Mauritius over the next 24 to 36 hours. Of more interest is invest area 90P, 420 miles East of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. This system will likely slowly intensify over the next five days in the Solomon Sea with it likely being a CAT 3 storm in three days. It will be a very slow mover accordingly to the latest computer models.
Europe outlook – on Saturday, Storm Dave will be located 150 miles West of Shannon, Ireland. At 06z Sunday, it will accelerate quickly to the NE and be located in the Northern Sea. Heavy snow, above 200 meters will occur in Scotland with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds likely through Sunday morning over Northern Ireland and Scotland. Little impact to the rest of the UK from this storm. A strong cold front will accompany the low and be located from Central Germany to the central Bay of Biscay at 12z Sunday. Very little sensible weather will occur along the front. Upper-level ridge will persist on Sunday from Southern Spain to the Balkans. On Easter Monday a very strong upper-level ridge will dominate from Spain to the UK to Greece with surface high pressure over Germany. Quiet weather will dominate as a result.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Easter Sunday a more or less zonal flow will continue with a moderately strong upper-level trough from Southern Greenland to the Azores.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
