Good Monday Morning,

High impact blizzard, 150 miles SSE of Eastern Long Island will continue to pull away from the NE USA this afternoon and will affect the Canadian Maritime provinces through tomorrow afternoon with high winds and very gusty winds. Yellow and orange warnings are posted for heavy snow. Civil unrest continues in portions of Mexico including the state of Jalisco. No formal notams have been issued for MMPR however many airlines have cancelled flights into the region. Low pressure over central Australia, in the vicinity of Alice Springs, will continue to produce a few more days of heavy rain over this region with amounts > 5 inches fairly widespread.

Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – critical weather day continues until 00z this evening due to the blizzard over the NE USA. No geomagnetic storms are forecast.

CONUS severe weather outlook – nosig significant thunderstorm outbreaks are likely through Thursday at least.

Tropical weather outlook – TC Horacio, 525 miles East of Port Louis, Mauritius, is currently undergoing rapid intensification. It will likely pass just to the East of Port Mathurin over the next few hours as a significant tropical cyclone. It will pass well to the East of Mauritius. As it tracks south of 25S, it will likely become extratropical as colder water temperatures prevail here.

Europe outlook – a significant pattern change is underway with upper-level ridging becoming the dominate weather feature on Wednesday with above normal temperatures likely over much of Western and Central Europe with no significant precipitation likely. Later on Thursday, deep low pressure will approach Southern Ireland and will move quickly towards Scotland by Friday morning. This system and associated cold front will bring an increased chance of showers and gusty winds to Ireland the UK through early Friday. Very little snow will occur in the Alps through the weekend. Surprisingly, the heaviest snow in the continent will occur over much of Eastern Turkey from Wednesday through Friday with a slow-moving low-pressure area over the region.

North Atlantic Jet stream – with broad upper level troughing over Atlantic Canada and ridging over central Europe a rather broad SW jet stream will occur midweek from just north of Bermuda to Iceland. Expect little change to this pattern by the end of the week.

Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.