Good Wednesday Morning,
Looks like a busy few weeks coming up for possible TC development from FIJI to NW Australia based on the latest global tropics hazards outlook. Flights to and from Australia from the US will have to be watched carefully. Official presidential TFR has been issued for PBI from 2030 local on 02/27 until 1930 local on 03/01. Once again FXE and SUA will be excluded with no restrictions at these airports.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – nosig severe weather outbreaks expected through at least early next week.
Tropical weather outlook – TC Horacio, 680 miles SE of Port Louis, Mauritius, is moving rapidly to the SE at 15 knots. It will continue to weaken rapidly and will not affect any islands. Invest area 98P, 230 miles NNE of Port Vila, Vanuatu, will have to be watched carefully over the next several days with the latest GFS model indicating a cyclone developing within 48 hours. Fortunately, it does look like it will pass between New Caledonia and FIJI over the weekend based on the latest computer models.
Europe outlook – deep low pressure at 12z Thursday will be located over SW Iceland with a cold front extending from the low to Western Ireland while strong high pressure will prevail from Western Russia to Spain. Very heavy snow will continue over much of Eastern Turkey into Thursday in association with a very cold upper level low. On Friday, the front will move quickly east towards Western France and Northern Portugal with a few showers along with front. Upper level and surface high pressure will continue to prevail over much of central and Eastern Europe with above normal temperatures continuing.
North Atlantic Jet stream – later on this week a broad SW flow will continue from Bermuda to Northern Scotland with velocities around 125 knots offshore the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
