Good Wednesday Morning,
Round one of heavy snow, tied to a surface low over Southern North Sea is finely weakening so expect weather conditions to slowly improve over this region (central Europe aerodromes). Airports with significant delays are in the Amsterdam and Paris areas. More details about high impact storm Goretti will follow below. Significant heat wave over portions of SE Australia is expected to continue into Saturday with high temperatures expected to peak on Saturday in YSSY around 42C. Also monitoring the possibility of a tropical low with heavy rain to affect portions of NE Australia over the weekend.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days nor geomagnetic storms are forecast through Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday from LA to the Nashville area in the warm sector ahead of a fast-moving cold front.
Tropical weather outlook – TC Jenna, well to the SW of the Cocos Islands will not impact any land masses. Invest area 90B, 630 miles SE of Chennai, has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Latest computer modeling indicates slow development possible as it moves in a general NW direction. Invest area 92P, 125 miles WSW of Willis Island also has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. A general movement to the SW is likely.
Europe outlook – main story will be high impact storm Goretti which will be located just to the South of Cork at 12z Thursday and will move quickly to the East during the day and will be located Friday afternoon just to the East of Amsterdam. Significant impacts will be felt including very high winds, heavy snow over the Central UK and the Benelux region and into Germany on Friday. On the back side of the low expect very gusty NW winds in the London area on Friday morning along with periods of snow which will significantly affect the atc system. Amber and yellow warnings for snow will be in effect until Friday morning. Accumulations could easily exceed 20-30 cm over the Midlands. Another snowfall event is forecasted for Sunday night and early Monday, with more details to follow on Friday.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Friday a broad Westerly flow is expected to continue due to the absence of any well-developed upper level ridges or troughs.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
