Good Friday Morning,
Expect an update on Tuesday regarding the potential French strike which could be very impactful. EUROCONTROL is expecting record traffic next Thursday and Friday. The 4th INTL conference on Financing and Development will take place next week in Seville, Spain. Primary airports will be LEZL/LEMO and to a lesser extent LEJR and LERT. It cannot be used as alternate during this time frame. Expecting 36,000 flights in EUROCONTROL airspace today which is very high. CYJT airport remains closed until the 09th of July, with CYDF remaining a good etp choice instead. EGPH is having fueling issues until the 06 of July per notam A4258/25. Russian rocket firings will affect the NOPACS from 0030-1830z daily from 28 June until 30 June. Chicago Executive airport (PWK) will be closed all day Saturday per notam 06/121.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Sunday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area 95P, a few hundred miles South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to move slowly to the WNW. A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week and should stay offshore the Mexican coastline. In the Bay of Campeche, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has a low chance of developing over the weekend. Invest area 97W, 425 miles NW of Guam, has a low chance of developing over the next several days.
CONUS severe weather outlook – typical late June pattern continues, with slight chances for severe weather mainly across portions of the North Central and Northern Plains through the weekend.
Europe outlook – for today, severe weather including large hail and convective wind gusts remains confined to Eastern Romania to Serbia and Montenegro. On Saturday an upper-level ridge will be centered from Spain to Germany which will help suppress convective activity with the exception of extreme Eastern Europe. Underneath this ridge hot temperatures are likely through early next week with temps above 95F possible early next week in the London area. Expect little in the way of sensible weather on Sunday too with the ridge firmly in place.
Canadian smoke model forecast – no impacts to the CONUS through Sunday. Fires in SW Utah continue to create local issues in extreme Southern Utah through the weekend.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
