Good Monday Morning,
No updates this morning on the possible French strike later on this week. The peak of the UK heat wave should be tomorrow when cooler air arrives from the West. Expect temperatures to approach 35C in the Southeast of England. A significant early winter storm is expected to affect SE Australia through Wednesday. The low, currently at 1010mb will deepen rapidly to 985 mb by 03z Wednesday. Sydney will likely be affected by 00z tonight through 12z Wednesday with heavy rain and very gusty winds. In fact, our in-house weather product is showing wind gusts in excess of 50 knots possible. Melbourne will not experience the high winds and heavy rain. Brisbane, for the most part will have gusty west winds along with plenty of dry air and very little rain.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Wednesday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area 98W, 700 miles East of Manila, has a low chance of developing through mid-week. Tropical storm Flossie, 175 miles South of ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO, is moving NW at 10 mph with maximum winds of 50 mph. Conditions remain favorable for development over the next 48 hours. Portions of the central Mexican coast remain under TS watches and warnings. Fortunately it appears as if the system will remain offshore through the end of the work.
CONUS severe weather outlook – typical late June/early July pattern continues, with marginal to slight chances for severe weather across many portions of the CONUS with daytime heating.
Europe outlook – upper-level ridge will be centered on Tuesday from Spain to Finland. A cold front will be located from Eastern Norway to the central UK to offshore Western Portugal on Tuesday. A few showers are possible along the front; however no significant impacts are expected. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible in the Alps and Eastern Spain on Tuesday according to the latest EURO model. The upper-level ridge will push a little further East on Wednesday and will be centered from Southern France to Poland however daytime thunderstorms are possible from Spain to Italy to the Benelux region as the weak cold front moves slowly East too.
Canadian smoke model forecast – some limited impacts to the Northern Plains on Tuesday.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
