Good Monday Morning,

Expect considerable delays at both Houston airports today due to high probabilities of thunderstorms. An upper-level ridge will prevail over much of Central Europe this week resulting in capping which will likely help reduce the possibility of thunderstorms over much of central Europe.

Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Wednesday.

Tropical cyclone outlook – both tropical storms Barbara and Cosme, well offshore the Mexican coastline, in the Pacific will not affect any land masses. Invest area 92W, 400 miles SSE of Hong Kong, will have to be watched closely this week as a few of the operational computer models want to take the system towards the Hong Kong area later on this week, into the early weekend.

CONUS severe weather outlook – please see the latest forecasts from SPC. As is typical for this time of year broad areas of slight to marginal risks occur over the CONUS.

Europe outlook – estofex is forecasting a high probability of severe weather from portions of Western Russia with lesser risks of severe weather from Ukraine to Romania until later on this evening. In terms of lightning and thunderstorms, on Tuesday the highest probability will be over Spain and Portugal, while on Wednesday the highest probabilities will be over extreme Southern France to much of Spain. An upper-level low offshore Portugal will provide the support for these thunderstorms.

Canadian smoke model forecast – highest concentrations are expected to remain over central Canada through mid-week at least.

Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.