Good Monday Morning,
Expect high volume operations at LAS from 03/18 to 03/23 due to NASCAR and NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Today is going to be a challenging day across the Eastern US airspace due to severe weather along the cold front and snow and wind on the back side of the deep low at 21z which will be located near Sault Ste Marie MI. Impressive upper-level ridge will be centered over the SW US this week which will bring unprecedented heat to this region through at least Saturday which will result in temperatures nearly 30 degrees above normal for this time of year. LLBG remains closed to all flights through at least 03/23 at 1100z. Over Hawaii, very high PWAT values remain in place for the next seven days with heavy rain and flash flooding threats will continue at times. Fortunately, it should not be as bad as last week.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – critical weather days will continue through 12z Tuesday morning in support of severe weather from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic states. No geomagnetic storms are forecast through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a high impact moderate risk is likely through tonight from Northern SC to the DC area where damaging wind gusts along a few tornadoes are possible. A few of the storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.
Tropical weather outlook – invest area 96P, 240 miles SSW of Honiara, Solomon Islands, will likely slowly develop over the next 24 to 48 hours and head in the general direction of Queensland Australia. Latest operational models place the center just North of Cairns later on this week as a fairly strong tropical cyclone.
Europe outlook – fairly quiet next few days expected over much of the continent. Deep low-pressure area to the SE of Iceland on Tuesday and its associated cold front which will be pushing through Western Ireland will create a few showers. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft will prevail over much of the continent. Also on Tuesday, a cold core upper level low along with a fairly intense surface cyclone just to the East of Tunisia, will likely produce a few showers over the region, stretching up to Southern Italy with high seas likely over the Central Mediterranean Sea. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge will persist from the UK to Western Russia with an upper level low near Naples, Italy helping to initiate showers and mountain snows over much of Central and Southern Italy.
North Atlantic Jet stream – by mid-week a well-defined upper level low just to the East of the Azores will help drive a broad Southwesterly jet to exist from Florida to Newfoundland to Iceland with velocities exceeding 150 knots over Eastern Newfoundland.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
