Good Wednesday Morning,
Relatively quiet day across North America today in terms of significant weather. A stalled-out front will likely bring periods of showers and thunderstorms from Bermuda to Jamaica for the next 48 to 60 hours. This may create some reroute issues for thunderstorm avoidance.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days through Friday. A G2 geomagnetic storm is forecast for tomorrow, becoming minor on Friday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – very unusual for late March, however no significant severe weather outbreaks are forecast for the next seven days.
Tropical weather outlook – very strong CAT3, soon to be CAT4 cyclone 500 miles ENE of Cairns, Australia, will continue to rapidly intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours under nearly perfect upper atmospheric conditions. It is expected to make landfall around 7am local on Friday well to the North of Cairns then emerge into the Gulf of Carpentaria in 72 hours. What is very interesting is that the models then take the system over Northern Australia later on this weekend and curve it to the South and rapidly intensify it a week or so from now. Please see the latest EURO model plots for the latest details. The US GFS model has the same general idea.
Europe outlook – on Thursday, the upper-level ridge will persist from Ireland to Southern Finland with strong high pressure over Scotland and a broad Easterly flow. A couple of upper-level lows, one well offshore Portugal and another over Western Turkey will bring showers to these regions as well. Little overall change is anticipated for Friday. Even into Saturday the upper-level ridge will persist from Southern Ireland to Helsinki.
North Atlantic Jet stream – on Friday, the upper-level ridge over the North Sea in combination with the upper level low just to the East of the Azores, will result in a broad Southwesterly jet from Bermuda to Western Norway with peak velocities of 150 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
