Good Monday Morning,
Flights destined to MMUN today are delayed an average of 62 minutes already due to a flow constrained area. Due to an aircraft incident overnight LGA remains closed until at least 18z today. San Diego (SAN) remains closed to GA traffic unless you have a PPR until October 01st. This notam was re issued last week. Low pressure area to the Southwest of St John’s Newfoundland tomorrow morning will bring heavy snow and very strong winds to the island, where an orange warning remains in effect. Snowfall rates may exceed 2″/hour at times. This storm will not affect Goose Bay.
Critical weather days – no critical weather days are expected through midweek. No geomagnetic storms are forecast through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no severe thunderstorms are forecast through Wednesday.
Tropical weather outlook – long lived TC Narelle, 390 miles ENE of Broome, Australia, will continue to intensify over the next 3 to 4 days as the center passes to the West of Port Hedland with another landfall likely just to the North of Learmonth in 4 days. This will likely be a high impact event for portions of Western Australia with very heavy rain and gusty winds. Too early to tell what the possible impacts will be in Perth. TC 28P, 330 miles West of Port Vila, Vanuatu, will likely pass just to the West of Noumea, New Caledonia in the next 12 hours with little impact expected based on the last TAF.
Europe outlook – on Wednesday, a cold upper level low in conjunction with surface low pressure over Northern Denmark, will help support a cold front through Eastern Europe to Northern Spain. Very cold air aloft behind the front will help support instability daytime rain showers, with a few snow and/or graupel showers possible. On Thursday, a fairly deep area of low pressure will be present in the Northern Gulf of Venice, with snow likely in the Alps and the Balkans with instability showers remaining from France to Poland. A deep area of low pressure and an occluded front will bring periods of heavy snow and gusty winds to much of Iceland beginning early Thursday morning through early Friday morning.
North Atlantic Jet stream – upper level low near YFB along with another upper level low over the Canary Islands will force the jet stream to buckle and will be meridional. Later on this week a more zonal flow will take hold.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
