Good Wednesday Morning,
From 09 March until 22 March runway 25C/07C will be closed at EDDF. Arriving traffic should expect 25R/07L while departing traffic will use runway 18. Middle East situation continues to be in flux, and it is advised to check the latest FIR notams for closures. Next week will be busy in terms of TC development with possible development over NW Australia up to Eastern Philippines. A significant forecast upgrade was initiated yesterday from the US Storm Prediction Center in terms of tornado intensity, wind gusts and hail sizes. Please check out this link for further details: https://lnkd.in/gAwH8nCu
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no geomagnetic storms are forecast through Friday. From Friday onward a critical weather day will likely be issued for the possibility of severe weather from North Central TX to the Kansas City area.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a very active afternoon into the evening is expected on Friday from the Waco TX area to the Kansas City area where a strong upper-level trough and favorable dynamics will help initiate a few super cells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Terminal impacts are likely over this region along with trans con reroutes also possible as traffic will likely be pushed on more Northerly Routes.
Tropical weather outlook – very active period continues over Northern Australia. TC 24P, 320 miles ENE of Cairns, is nearly stationary. It is expected to make landfall around 00z on the 06th as a low-end tropical storm. TC 25S, 700 miles NNW of Learmonth Australia, will likely move to the West over the next several days with no impacts to any land masses. I have included a few images from the latest EURO model for further details.
Europe outlook – on Thursday a cold front will extend from Northern Scotland to Western Portugal with a few showers along it. Low pressure to the Southeast of Valencia will help initiate a few showers over NE Spain and Southern France. Otherwise surface high pressure and an upper-level ridge will dominate a majority of the continent with morning fog likely at times. Little change is expected on Friday with low pressure remaining nearly stationary over SE Spain with showers and higher elevation snow over much of Spain/Portugal extending East to Sicily.
North Atlantic Jet stream – upper level low on Friday over Western Greenland along with the upper level low over Spain will result a fairly strong NW to SW jet from Central Ontario to Iceland with peak velocities of 100 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
