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Aviation Weather May 12, 2025

Good Monday Morning,

Staffing issues continue in the NE US today. Expect significant delays going into ewr/teb/mmu. French strike just announced from 04z on 05/13 until 06z on 05/14. Russian rocket firings continue to affect the NOPACS until 1830z on WED. Plan accordingly. PAZA notams provide routing options. Runway closures continue this week at LHBP and EPPO. Check notams carefully.

Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days are in effect through Wednesday. Space weather remains quiet too.

Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area 94P is located 250 miles WSW of HONIARA. Models do not show major intensification over the next few days.

CONUS severe weather outlook – fairly quiet through mid-week. Thursday and Friday look much more active in portions of lower Great Lakes states and the mid-South.

Europe outlook
– no significant storm systems or frontal system are expected through mid-week. Daytime showers and isolated thunderstorms remain likely on Tuesday from France to Italy, then on Wednesday over Spain, Algeria and Tunisia. Later on, this week may get interesting over Southern Italy to the Balkans with the approach of a low-pressure area.

North Atlantic jet stream forecast – an upper-level ridge North of Scotland and an upper-level low East of Newfoundland will strongly influence the jet stream pattern through Thursday. This will result in fairly light winds generally North of 50N. This will work out well for the Westbound flights.


Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

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