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Aviation Weather May 2, 2025

Good Friday Morning,

Kentucky Derby is tomorrow. Expect delays all weekend long at sdf/lou and jvy. Expect significant delays at OPF due to the formula one race. Expect a ground stop/ground delay program at EWR due to low visibility/wind and the runway closure. In fact, delays are averaging 99 minutes already this morning. Expect significant delays at airports over Central and Eastern TX due to the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening.

Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days nor geomagnetic storms are forecast through Sunday.

Tropical cyclone outlook – no suspect areas.

CONUS severe weather outlook – today looks to be fairly active from Eastern KY to central and Eastern TX with widespread severe thunderstorms likely ahead of a significant short-wave trough. The weekend looks to be more settled followed by an uptick in severe weather later on Monday into Monday night over portions of the Southern Plains and Western TX.

Europe outlook – sunniest April on record for the UK along with warmer than average temperatures. A persistent upper level and surface low remains nearly stationary to the West of Portugal on Saturday. On Sunday, a weak cold front will push through much of central Europe along with a period of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front ushering in a cooler airmass.

North Atlantic jet stream forecast – relatively non-descript jet stream pattern will continue on Sunday with the primary jet residing from Newfoundland to just South of the Azores. On Monday, an upper-level low South of Chicago and another upper-level low South of the Azores will strongly influence the jet.


Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

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