Good Monday Morning,
A PPR process will be implemented until December 26th at TEB with Jet Aviation due to heightened demand for their services during the busy holiday season. As expected, a presidential TFR has been issued for PBI effective from 2000 local on 11/25 to 1630 local on 11/30. The Hayli Gubbi volcano in Northern Ethiopia recently erupted and fortunately the eruption has ended. However residual ash is affecting airspace well to the NE of the volcano, all the way to Western China with tops of the ash to FL 450. Sigmets currently cover the region from Oman to Northern India to Western Nepal with ash cloud tops to FL 500.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Wednesday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TC FINA, 200 miles WSW of Darwin, continues to track very slowly to the SW at 04 knots. It is expected to make another landfall within in the next 6 hours, then will quickly weaken. Invest area 92W, 130 miles NE of Davao, Philippines as a high chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Computer models remain in excellent agreement that this area intensify as it moves into the South China Sea on Tuesday then move very slowly to the West. Invest area 95B, 300 miles NW of Singapore has a low chance of developing over the next day or so. Also going to have to watch for possible development in the vicinity of Sri Lanka by mid-week.
CONUS severe weather outlook – today through this evening looks to be the most active period of severe weather through at least the end of the work week. Slight risks exist from East Texas through Southern MS with the passage of an upper-level trough and warm front.
Europe outlook – a cold upper-level low over Switzerland on Tuesday along with surface low pressure and a cold front that will be located from Central Italy to Northern Morocco will help promote snow in the Alps and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of Central Italy. The upper low will remain nearly stationary over Northern Italy with continued shower
opportunities over much of Italy to Greece.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – with the absence of significant upper-level ridges/troughs the flow on Wednesday will be more or less zonal with peak velocities of 100 knots. On Thanksgiving Day, the flow will become more South Westerly from the SE USA to Ireland with velocities around 125 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
