Good Wednesday Morning!

No critical weather days are expected through Friday and no geomagnetic storms are also forecast. Expect heavy traffic in Austin TX this weekend with the F1 race going on along with the Univ of TX/GA football game Saturday night. Keep a close eye on TFFF notams for staff shortages along with civil disturbances. Marbug virus continues to affect Rwanda with travelers back to the US will be directed to either JFK/IAD/ORD.

Two-week tropical outlook – most active areas next week for possible TC development will be in the Bay of Bengal and just to the East of the Philippines.

Tropical outlook

West Pacific / Indian Ocean basin – all is quiet.

Eastern Pacific- Atlantic – Eastern Pacific remains quiet. Invest area AL94, over the central tropical Atlantic has a 40 percent chance of development later on this week. Latest EURO ensemble models bring a weak system North of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Saturday then move it towards Bermuda next week. GFS model does not show much development at all.

US Severe weather outlook – as is typical for Mid Oct no significant severe weather outbreaks are expected through early next week at least.

Europe outlook – deep low pressure just to the South of Iceland at 12z Friday, with a fairly strong cold front extending from the low through Western Ireland. Scattered showers and gusty winds along and behind the front. The front will continue to push fairly quickly to the East on Saturday. A surface and upper-level low/trough will prevail over much of Italy and Southern France on Thursday through Saturday bringing very good chances for heavy rain and gusty winds at times. Snowfall probabilities remain very low in the Alps through at least early next week.

North Atlantic jet stream forecast – an extremely powerful jet (zonal) will continue on Friday with velocities in excess of 175 knots along 45 degrees North.

Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.