Good Friday Morning,
A presidential TFR will be in effect for this weekend at PBI from 1615 local today through 1830 local on Sunday night. Due to the F1 race in Austin, TX this weekend, expect a route structure in place with possible delays. A significant low-pressure area may affect the UK next Thursday and Friday, with high winds and heavy rain. More details to be provided early next week.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Sunday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area 96W, 500 miles East of Legazpi, Philippines has a high chance of developing into a TD/TS over the next 24 hours. Latest computer models want to try to develop this system over the Northern South China Sea early next week remaining well to the SE of VHHH. Invest area EP91, just offshore Southern Mexico, will likely remain offshore per the latest modeling. Tropical wave, 1000 miles East of the Windward Islands will have to be watched in the longer term for possible development as it moves quickly to the West.
CONUS severe weather outlook – Day 2, Saturday provides the best opportunities for severe weather for the next seven days with a slight risk from the ARKLATEX region to the lower OH valley. A broad upper-level trough along with a very strong mid-level jet will promote scattered to numerous thunderstorms over this region as a squall line develops and moves quickly to the SE.
Europe outlook – on Sunday, a deep area of low pressure will be located 200 miles to the West of Shannon, Ireland with an occluded front pushing through Western England to Northern Portugal. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front along with briefly gusty winds. On Monday the deep low will be centered near East Midlands, with periods of showers and a few low topped thunderstorms possible from the Southern UK to Northern Italy.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Sunday, the upper-level trough over Newfoundland, and a closed upper-level low over Western Ireland will help force the primary jet stream to lie from Bermuda to just North of the Azores to Portugal with velocities at times in excess of 100 knots. I do not normally mention this but the zonal jet stream in the Pacific is well underway with velocities well in excess of 125 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
