Good Monday Morning!

A possible critical weather day may be issued for today, due to the possibility of significant wildfires in Western OK and portions of KS. A g2 geomagnetic storm is predicted for today, with less activity expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. If you are operating to airports in the Mexico City area, please be alert to volcanic ash from mt POPO. It continues to be very active with high level ash too FL 260 possible even in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical outlook

West Pacific / Indian Ocean basin – TS KONG-REY, 600 miles South of Kadena AFB will have to be watched very closely this week as it approaches SE Taiwan on the 31st as a significant typhoon. It will likely undergo rapid intensification over the next 48 hours under favorable atmospheric conditions. It will not affect the Philippines. Enroute flights over Taiwan will most likely have to be rerouted on Wednesday and Thursday.

Atlantic – Eastern Pacific – couple of suspect areas in the Eastern Pacific but no concerns at this time. A broad area of low pressure may form over the next few days in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. Much too early to tell the future impacts will be if and when a storm develops here.

US Severe thunderstorm weather outlook – on Wednesday, a slight risk of severe thunderstorms will be possible from THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

Europe outlook – surface high pressure will prevail over a large portion of Europe this week. Exception will be over Southern Spain and Portugal where a surface low and a well-defined upper-level low will provide opportunities for showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday. With an upper-level ridge also present over much of Europe look for the normal overnight fog/stratus at many airports as daylight becomes reduced as we approach early November.

North Atlantic jet stream forecast – upper-level low over Portugal and an upper-level trough East of Newfoundland will provide an opportunity for a meridional flow to continue through at least Thursday, thus the West bound flights will have lighter than normal head winds.

Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.