Good Monday Morning,
Good news – the French strike planned for this week has been cancelled. As of last week, Uzbekistan FIR and all and all airports have new ICAO codes. The prefix UT was replaced by UZ.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through mid-week.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TC Shakhit, 100 miles ESE of Masirah Island will dissipate within 24 hours. Typhoon Halong, 580 miles South of Yokosuka, Japan will likely intensify rapidly over the next 12-36 hours and will pass 200 miles to the East of Tokyo on the 09th at 06z as a fairly strong typhoon. It will likely become extratropical by Thursday at 09z. Impacts to Tokyo will be minimal with gusty North winds at 20 to 30 knots possible on Thursday. Hurricane Priscilla, 240 miles SSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, will likely remain offshore and will pass well to the West of Cabo San Lucas Wednesday morning. Invest area 95L, over the central Tropical Atlantic will likely approach the Northern Leeward Islands later on this week with a fairly good chance of developing into at least a tropical depression. Latest computer models indicate it should remain North of the islands, but it will have to be watched carefully.
CONUS severe weather outlook – for the most part, a dry and stable airmass will prevent a widespread severe weather outbreak through next weekend.
Europe outlook – estofex is forecasting a good possibility of heavy rain through at least Thursday for portions of Southern Turkey and Eastern Romania due to the very strong upper-level low over the region. Conversely a very strong upper-level ridge will be dominating the weather scene from Spain to Finland with fairly good weather expected underneath the ridge. By Wednesday the ridge will weaken, however the upper-level low persists over Western Turkey.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Wednesday, a very strong jet stream with velocities in excess of 100 knots will persist from Northern Maine to Western Norway. Expect little change on Thursday, thus the West bound flights should have a relatively low head wind.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
