Good Wednesday Morning,
With low ceilings and runway construction expect significant delays at BOS through this evening. National Industrial Action is expected on Tuesday 14 October with impact on EBBR and EBCI. Per the latest notams it is expected to begin at 20z on 10/13 and end on 10/14 at 2359z. Significant impacts are expected at both airports. Relatively quiet day traffic wise in Euro control airspace with only 29,000 flights anticipated. KTEX, runway 09/27 (only runway) remains closed until 10/10 at 18z. F1 race will take place in Austin, TX, from 10/17 until 10/19. PPR’s will be required.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Friday. Coastal low pressure will likely affect portions of the Mid Atlantic and NE US from Sunday to Monday with the possibility of significant delays due to gusty winds and heavy precipitation.
Tropical cyclone outlook – typhoon Halong will pass well to the East of Tokyo in the next 18 hours. Hurricane Priscilla, 190 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico will likely remain sufficiently offshore to not present any issues for MMSD/MMSL. Poorly organized TS Jerry, about 840 miles ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS will likely pass just to the Northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday evening/early Friday morning. It may impact TNCM/Barbuda/Anguilla; however I do not think the airports will close.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no significant severe weather outbreaks expected over the next five days.
Europe outlook – per Estofex, both Thursday and Friday will feature elevated risks of severe thunderstorms from SE Spain to Sardinia for heavy rain and isolated waterspouts. A blocking upper-level ridge will prevail over much of Western Europe for the next few days allowing patchy overnight fog to form under this very stable air mass. No significant storm systems are forecast over the continent for the next three days.
Long range worldwide tropical outlook – please see the latest forecast from the climate prediction center.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Friday, and upper-level trough over Newfoundland and the upper-level ridge over the UK will force the primary jet to reside from YYT to BIKF to Eastern Denmark with velocities from 75 to 100 knots.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
