Good Monday Morning,
ATC industrial action which was planned for Thursday the 18th of Sept in France has been called off. There is a possibility it will be rescheduled for Oct 7th through the 10th. Look for several TFR’s next week in the NYC area for the UN general assembly meeting. Numerous low level sigmets for TURBC continue over Ireland and the UK today due to very gusty Southwest winds tied to a very deep surface low over the Northern North Sea.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no critical weather days through Wednesday. A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm is forecast for today.
Tropical cyclone outlook – in the Western Pacific, invest area 98W, 600 miles ESE of Da Nang, has a low chance of developing over the next several days as it moves through the South China Sea. Tropical storm Mario, 285 miles SSW of the Southern Tip of Baja CA will not impact any land masses as it moves off to the NW. In the Central Atlantic a TD is likely to form later on this week, generally North of the islands. Ensemble models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario.
CONUS severe weather outlook – no widespread or significant severe weather outbreaks are expected for the next seven days.
Europe outlook – yellow warnings for wind continue until 1800 local today over much of Central and Southern UK for very gusty winds thanks to a 980 mb surface low 425 miles NNE of Luton at 12z today. By Tuesday afternoon, the low will be just to the East of Denmark. By Wednesday afternoon another deep area of low pressure will be located to the NW of Ireland with a cold front pushing through the UK. Periods of showers and gusty winds will result. In terms of severe weather a level 1 forecast has been noted for portions of central Europe for today mainly for small hail and locally excessive rain.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – by mid-week, an upper-level low in the mid-Atlantic region along with an upper-level ridge over Corsica will allow for a non-zonal flow. This pattern will likely continue through the end of the work week.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
