Good Monday Morning,
Fall officially begins at 0119pm CDT today in the Northern Hemisphere. Fuel notam for EDDH remains in effect, A4857/25, due to technical reason at refinery. Appears as if GA flights are unaffected. Highly advise if you are planning a trip to Costa Rica during the high season (mid-Nov to January) to get your flights on the schedule ASAP as it appears as if ramp space will be tight.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none in effect through midweek.
Tropical cyclone outlook – super typhoon Ragasa, 285 miles North of Manila, one of strongest typhoons in recent years to affect the region will likely pass within 75 miles of VHHH around 00z on the 24th. It appears as if its intensity has maxed out and a very slow decline is expected for the next 72 hours. Typhoon Neoguri will not impact any land masses. Tropical storm Narda, 160 miles South of ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO will gradually move West and not impact any land masses. Hurricane Gabrielle, 210 miles Se of Bermuda, will pass around 150 miles East of the island tonight. It may impact the Western Azores early Friday morning.
CONUS severe weather outlook – for today there is slight risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the central plains, and for Tuesday this slight risk extends a little further to the East from AR to NE TX to Eastern OK. Thereafter, the potential for severe weather is reduced.
Europe outlook – on Tuesday strong high pressure will be located over Northern Scotland while weak low pressure will be present over Northern Italy with a cold front extending from the low to Northern Algeria. On Wednesday, the high pressure will drift East towards the North Sea, while the surface low moves slowly to the NE over Western Slovenia. A well-defined upper level low will be over Southern France on Tuesday, moving slowly East to extreme Southeastern France by Wednesday afternoon. It will remain nearly stationary for the remainder of the week as it trapped by a very strong upper level high over Southern Sweden.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – by midweek, an upper-level low between Greenland and Iceland along with the upper-level low over Eastern France will allow for a general zonal flow across the Atlantic with velocities just shy of 100 knots. Later on, this week the flow becomes more meridional with a broad upper-level trough over the Central Atlantic.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
