Good Monday Morning,
As of 04 Sept, Borg El-Arab INTL airport is now Alexandria INTL airport, and the ICAO has changed from HEBA to HEAX. MMMX/MMSM will be closed on Sept 16th from 15-20z for Independence Day celebrations. MMTO appears to be unaffected. TNCM remains closed until at least 16z today due to a disabled aircraft. Rain and gusty winds likely over Southeastern Australia through early Thursday morning as low pressure moves through the area. Some snow is possible in the higher elevations. This low will likely affect the North Island of New Zealand later on this week. Heavy snow also likely in the mountains of the South Island through mid-week.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Wednesday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – last warning has been issued on Typhoon Tapah, which was located 100 miles WSW of VHHH at 03z. Atlantic basin remains quiet this week, with KIKO expected to continue weakening at an accelerated rate during the next 24 hours as it passes well North of the Hawaiian Islands over the next 36 to 48 hours.
CONUS severe weather outlook – entire week looks fairly quiet, with today most likely being the most active with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from Western KS to the TX panhandle.
Europe outlook – a series of frontal systems will keep a good chance for showers for much of Europe through midweek. Some models are hinting that by Wednesday low pressure may develop over Northern Italy with a fairly good chance for showers and thunderstorms from Northern Italy to the Alps. Thereafter, an upper-level low will remain nearly stationary to the West of Ireland and several impulses will continue an unsettled pattern for much of Western Europe into the weekend.
North Atlantic jet stream analysis – on Wednesday a very strong zonal flow will be present over the central Atlantic with velocities in excess of 125 knots. Therefore, the East bound flights will be arriving much earlier than expected. West bound flights will go north of 55N to avoid this very strong jet stream. This pattern will likely continue through at least Friday.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
