Good Monday Morning,
EGMC, South end airport in Eastern England remains closed until tomorrow at 05z per notam a4688/25. Please check notams carefully for daytime and nighttime runway closures at MMTO through the end of July.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no official critical weather days are in effect through Wednesday, however they are monitoring due to flooding in central TX and fire weather conditions in the West. No geomagnetic storms are forecast through Wednesday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TS Nari, 170 miles ENE of Yokosuka, Japan, is of no concern with no convection around the center. In the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a weak low-pressure area may form over the next several days and track to the West or WNW. The deterministic and ensemble computer models do not show significant development.
CONUS severe weather outlook – most active day through mid-week will be on Tuesday with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over portions of NE and SD with severe wind gusts and hail likely.
Europe outlook – several pockets of severe weather are possible through this evening over a large portion of central and Eastern Europe. Please see the latest forecast from estofex. On Tuesday a fairly strong area of low pressure for Mid July will be impacting the UK with periods of showers and gusty winds. A cold front over Germany will help provide the spark for daytime thunderstorms over portions of central Europe which unfortunately will likely create enroute ATC delays. With the upper-level low (cold core) over Northern Germany on Wednesday expect good daytime coverage of thunderstorms over much of central Europe which will likely result in another day of delays across the central European airspace.
Canadian smoke model forecast – no significant issues from the Canadian fires. Fires in Northern AZ will create local smoke issues over the four corners area.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
