Good Wednesday Morning!
MT ETNA continues to erupt with ash to FL 120, moving South at 10 knots. Sigmets continue over the region for the volcanic ash from Eastern Sicily to Northern Tunisia including the Malta area. LICC remains zero rated until at least 1600z with delays at LICJ due to overload traffic caused by the LICC closure. It is aways away but expect a presidential TFR in the Dallas TX area around September 9th and 10th. Runway 06/24 will be closed at Paris, Orly airport for the next several months with significant impacts expected. Unfortunately it looks like it will be cloudy over Iceland today for the total solar eclipse that begins at 17-18z.
No critical weather days are in effect through Friday. I would expect this to change with possible tropical cyclone impacts on Hawaii over the weekend. No geomagnetic storms are forecast too.
CONUS severe weather outlook – a very broad area of slight risks will exist today from the Northern/Central Plains to the lower Ohio valley. The tornado threat within this region remains very low. Marginal risks exist on Thursday and Friday in the same general areas.
Tropical weather outlook – west Pacific remains fairly quiet. In the Central Pacific, a low pressure area is located 1050 miles ESE of the Hawaiian Islands moving WNW at 10-15 mph. Both the latest GFS and EURO operational models take the system very close to the Big Island around 18-24z on Saturday with the google deep mind model taking the center just South of the Big Island after 21z Saturday. Naturally this could be a high impact event for the islands. In the Central Atlantic, invest area AL92, located 900 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde islands has a very high chance of developing over the next 48 hours. General model consensus indicates a general WNW movement through the weekend with no significant increase in intensity.
Europe outlook – an amber heat warning remains in effect for much of the Southern UK on Thursday with high temperatures expected to exceed 37C. Slightly cooler temperatures will be felt on Friday and Saturday with near normal temperatures expected by Sunday. The core of the upper level ridge will extend from Spain to Denmark on Thursday, and by Friday it will extend from Eastern Spain to Poland and will weaken slightly. Very little in the way of sensible weather will occur over the continent through Friday, becoming more active over the weekend.
Canadian smoke model forecast– lower concentrations of smoke in the Pacific NW than what we have seen in previous days. On Thursday the highest concentrations appear to be focused from Central NV to central WA.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
