Good Friday Morning!
Presidential TFR remains in effect for today at MYR and CRE from 1730 local until 2130 local. Going to be a tough day in EUROCONTROL airspace today with significant delays expected due to convection from Se Poland to Southern France. Expecting around 37,200 flights in the airspace today. Firefighting TFR near Aspen with terminal initiatives possible.
The need for a critical weather day is possible this weekend for TC operations in the Northern Mariana Islands and for TC operations in Hawaii. No geomagnetic storms are forecast through Sunday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – today looks to be most active through the weekend with slight risks over portions of the central plains, the Midwest and the Carolinas.
Tropical weather outlook – no real concerns in the Atlantic for the time being with two suspect areas being monitored. First one is several hundred miles NNE of the Azores, and the second one is a few hundred miles East of Bermuda. No land masses will be impacted. No concerns from LaLa. TD2, 780 miles Se of Hilo, Hi will pass to the South of the big island on Sunday likely bringing several inches of rain to the favored windward slopes. TS Saudel, 220 miles ENE of Andersen AFB is moving NNW at 08 knots. This system will rapidly intensify over the next 12 to 60 hours then the forecast becomes a little more uncertain as it interacts with the monsoon depression 94W.
Europe outlook – on Saturday, a very deep low-pressure area will be located 450 miles West of Lisbon with heavy showers and thunderstorms around the low but no impacting Portugal. Strong high pressure will be building into the UK. On Sunday, the low will move closer to Portugal with heavy showers and thunderstorms possible over Western Portugal. Strong high pressure will be centered over Ireland. On Monday the low will weaken and the associated upper-level trough will bring fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to Western Portugal and Western France. Upper-level ridge will be present over the North Sea to Sicily.
North Atlantic jet stream outlook – an upper-level trough on Sunday West of Portugal along with another upper-level trough over Eastern Ontario will allow for a zonal jet for the most part with velocities in excess of 120 knots just East of Newfoundland.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
