Good Monday Morning,
A very rare total solar eclipse will sweep across Western Iceland on Wednesday August 12th. BIKF and BIRK will be in the path of totality. I would plan early if you expecting to head that way during this very rare event. Notam A0035/26 continues at MBPV. No GA flights are allowed to arrive between 16z and 20z (noon to 1600 local). DPA airport, primary runway 02L/20R will be closed from 05/13 to 05/27. Delays are likely in the MSP area later on this afternoon/evening in association with severe thunderstorms.
Critical weather days/space Weather alerts – a critical weather day will remain in effect until Tuesday due to tropical cyclone operations in Guam.
No space advisories through Wednesday.
CONUS severe weather outlook – not unusual for mid-April, as enhanced risks of severe thunderstorms exist today across the upper MS river valley region. For Tuesday, the axis of severe weather will move a little further South towards Iowa into Southern WI and Northern IL. On Wednesday, the areal coverage will increase however the risk level will decrease to only a slight risk.
Tropical weather outlook – very impressive super typhoon Sinlaku, 200 miles ESE of Navsta, Guam, has a current intensity of 150 knots, moving NE at 09 knots with a maximum wave height of 43 feet. Good news is that it appears to have reached peak intensity, and within 72 hours it will weaken considerably due to the effects of hostile shear, cooling sea surface temperatures and dry air entrainment. It is expected to make its closest approach to Guam at 04z on the 14th, and is expected to pass right over Saipan at 12z on the 14th as a CAT 4 super typhoon. The official taf is going for gusts to 139 knots tomorrow.
Europe outlook – on Tuesday at 12z, deep low pressure will be located 700 miles WNW of Shannon, Ireland, with a warm front extending from the low to Western Ireland. A weak upper level low over Tunisia in combination with daytime heating will create isolated showers and thunderstorms over much of Italy. The upper level low will move slowly to the NE on Wednesday with daytime showers and thunderstorms still likely over much of Italy. A cold front through the UK and Western France on Wednesday with a few showers along it. Later on this week an upper level ridge will dominate over much of the continent will little in the way of sensible weather and above normal temperatures likely.
North Atlantic jet stream – on Wednesday a zonal flow will persist with relatively light winds. Expect this pattern to continue through the end of the week.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropical tidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, Environment Canada, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
