Good Monday Morning,
MMCZ, Cozumel, Mexico will be closed nightly from 0330z until 1300z until the 15th of September per notam A5680/25. Effective 04 September, HEBA, will be renamed to Alexandria International airport per notam A0289/25. The ICAO will become HEAX too. Expect significant delays in and around the Dallas area this morning due to thunderstorms approaching the region from the Northwest.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – no geomagnetic storms nor critical weather days are anticipated through Wednesday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – TS Dexter, a sheared TS, 255 miles NW of Bermuda will not impact Bermuda or any land masses. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean has a 50 percent chance of development into a TD later on this week. The latest EURO Ensemble models take this system well to the East of Lesser Antilles.
In the Eastern Pacific – a suspect area may develop into a TS, but it should remain offshore, to the SW of Acapulco later on this week. In the Western Pacific, TS Bailu, 500 miles ESE of Misawa, Japan, will not impact any land masses. TD 14W, 550 miles NNW of Wake Island, is of no concern.
CONUS severe weather outlook – as has been the case over the last few days slight risks of severe weather exist over the Western high plains.
Europe outlook – Amber wind warnings continue in effect through 2300 local for much of Scotland due to storm Floris, currently situated over extreme North Central Scotland. It will move quickly to the NE overnight and be located over West Central Norway at 12z tomorrow with a cold front extending from the low to central France. Daytime showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front; however no severe weather is anticipated. Conditions will become much calmer by Wednesday with high pressure over Switzerland along with general WNW flow aloft
Canadian smoke model forecast – it appears as if the worst of the smoke will remain over the Canadian Prairies through mid-week. What is very interesting is that smoke from the fires in SOCAL will move South into the Baja California peninsula and this may also affect air quality over SOCAL.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
