Good Wednesday Morning,
Be on the lookout for overnight runway closures at BDL, later on this week, runway 15/33. Runway 06/24, the longer runway remains closed until the end of November. TEB will have significant runway closures on August 10th from 04z until 16z and the airport will be closed to fixed wing aircraft. Also, watch out for nighttime runway closures at LFPB from September 15th until the 18th from 2200-0600 local per the local FBO. Marseille ACC East area on August 7th will have a slight ATC capacity reduction from 0630-0800 and 1200-1330 due to a strike. Capacity will be reduced by 9-12%.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none through Friday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – West Pacific – no areas of concern. Ts Henriette, 1800 miles East of Hilo, HI, will pass well off to the NE of Hawaii on Saturday night. Invest area 91P, offshore the coast of Southwest Mexico, is likely to form into a TD over the next day or so and parallel the coast of Mexico per the latest computer model tracks. TS Dexter continues to strengthen and is currently located 400 miles SSE of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Interestingly as it undergoes extratropical transition over the next couple of days it may in fact become stronger, possibility reaching hurricane status. A weak area of low pressure offshore the Southeast coastline may form into a TD by this weekend and move off to the NE. In the central tropical Atlantic, another TD may form but should remain well east of the US coastline.
CONUS severe weather outlook – most active day by far will be Friday afternoon/evening, across the Northern Plains and Upper MS valley region as a mid-level trough passes through the area. Primary concern will be large hail stones and severe wind gusts. If you are planning a tech stop in this region you might want to re consider your plans.
Europe outlook – no severe weather is expected for the next few days. Most of the continent will be dominated by an upper-level ridge which will be centered from NE Spain to Western Greece on Friday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored over Switzerland and Austria through the weekend. A weak cold front will push through the UK on Thursday with little in the way of sensible weather.
Canadian smoke model forecast – lower smoke concentrations are likely over the NE USA over the upcoming few days, while the most concentrated areas of smoke remain over the Canadian prairies. Smoke from the CA wildfires will likely migrate South towards Western Baja peninsula over the upcoming several days.
Long range tropical outlook – next few weeks will naturally show an uptick in possible TC development over the Central Atlantic along with fairly low probabilities over portions of the Western Pacific.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
