Good Wednesday Morning,
NWS has issued a notice that Las Vegas, NM (LVS) and Tucumcari, NM (TCC) will stop issuing terminal forecasts by this fall. Just a remainder that Sal oceanic (GVSC) requires an overflight permit. HND, Henderson airport in the Las Vegas area, will be un towered for periods of time. Several notams were issued on the 14th. MMU, Morristown NJ, will have a significant runway closure from 2200 local on July 27th through August 30th. Please check their website for further details. Very limited jet fuel at LHBP until the end of the month. Due to a government event LYBE remains closed to GA traffic until 17 July at 16z.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – a critical weather day will likely be required on Friday for excessive rainfall over South Central LA. No geomagnetic storms through Friday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – invest area 90S, 400 miles NW of the Cocos Islands has a high chance of developing into a TC over the next 24 hours. Invest area 96W, 450 miles east of Legazpi has a medium chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Computer models remain bullish that this will intensify and move towards the Northern Philippines over the next few days and could eventually move towards Hong Kong over the weekend. Invest area AL93 remains steady with a 40 percent chance of developing over the next 24 to 36 hours as it tracks towards the MS delta bringing heavy rain to SE and South-Central LA on Thursday regardless of development. Some airways over the Gulf of Mexico might be affected tomorrow due to thunderstorms.
CONUS severe weather outlook – please see the latest from SPC – no widespread outbreaks are likely.
Europe outlook – pockets of severe weather are possible over portions of Northern and Central Europe through this evening. On Thursday, low pressure area well west of Ireland and associated cold front will help trigger a few thunderstorms over Ireland and Northern Ireland. A cold upper-level low over the Balkans will help promoted daytime showers and isolated thunderstorms over a large portion of central Europe while an upper-level ridge from Spain to France will help promote well above normal temperatures.
Canadian smoke model forecast – fires in the four corners region and over Oregon will continue to produce poor air quality.
Long range tropical outlook – continue to forecast good probabilities of TC development over the Western Pacific centered from 20N to 25N, generally West of 150E. Surprisingly the Atlantic may remain quiet through early August.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
