Good Friday Morning,
As it is the winter season in the summer hemisphere be on the lookout for fog/freezing fog during the overnight and early morning hours at SCEL/SAEZ/SUMU and SULS. This is a common occurrence this time of year. In fact, a few days ago SCEL was reporting freezing fog -1C with visibility of 100 meters. SAME, Mendoza, Argentina does not typically experience this type of weather. Runway 06R/24L remains closed at LTFJ until the 27th of July. Be on the lookout for runway closures in September at SEGU, per notam A1767/25.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – none in effect through Sunday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – Atlantic and East Pacific will likely remain quiet for the next seven days. Invest area 96W, located 250 miles Northeast of Manila has a very large cyclonic diameter. This system has a high chance of developing into a TC as it moves in a general West to WNW direction. It will likely approach Hong Kong around 18-24z Saturday per the latest GFS and EURO model. Heavy rain and gusty winds will likely linger around VHHH through early next week.
CONUS severe weather outlook – slight risks exist today from Northeast NE to SW MN and over portions of Eastern VA/NC. Saturday looks to be a little more active with a slight risk from Eastern IA to the Buffalo NY area. A few super cells area possible within this area mainly over Southern WI to lower MI.
Europe outlook – a fairly showery period with embedded thunderstorms remains likely for much of the UK through early next week. On Saturday a cold upper level low and surface low will be located a few hundred miles to the SW of Shannon. On Sunday, the upper-level low will be in the vicinity of the Western English Channel with a cold front extending from the surface low to Western France to Northern Spain. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms on Monday will be present across central Europe which will likely impact ATC traffic.
Canadian smoke model forecast – thickest concentrations of the heavy smoke will likely remain just north of the Canada/US border through the weekend.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
