Good Wednesday Morning,
Fuel situation remains tight at ACK through at least until 02 Aug 02z per notam 07/046. Tokyo will have be watched carefully beginning during the Friday afternoon hours (local time) through Sunday afternoon with the passage of TC Krosa. I am not seeing any airport closures as a direct result of the earthquake yesterday afternoon of off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. OAK airport has been renamed to Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport. Look for chart updates over the next few months.
Critical weather days / geomagnetic storm outlook – cwd remains in effect until 15z due to Tsunami ops across the Pacific Basin. Once the threat passes, a cwd is not likely through Friday. No geomagnetic storms are forecast through Friday.
Tropical cyclone outlook – Atlantic and Eastern Pacific remains quiet. TS Keli, 600 miles SSE of Honolulu will dissipate over the next few days. Hurricane Iona, 690 miles South of Honolulu will weaken rapidly as it moves to the West of 17mph. TS Co-May, 35 miles SSE of Shanghai, China, will likely pass very close to the city over the next few hours with gusty winds and heavy rain likely through 00z. TS Krosa, 125 miles NNE of Chichi, Japan is moving very slowly to the North at 03 knots. Still some uncertainty in the models, however it appears it will approach the Tokyo area around 06z on the 2nd as a fairly strong tropical storm. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely beginning around 12z on the 1st through 12z on the 2nd.
CONUS severe weather outlook – the next three days are typical of a mid-summer pattern with broad areas of marginal risks across much of the CONUS. No widespread or intense periods of severe thunderstorms are likely.
Europe outlook – no severe thunderstorms likely today. Upper level low just to the East of Denmark on Thursday afternoon will remain nearly stationary through Saturday. By Saturday afternoon an upper-level trough will extend from the upper-level trough to Northern Italy while an upper-level ridge builds into the UK. Daytime showers and isolated thunderstorms will be commonplace over much of central Europe on Thursday with SE England most favored. Expect increased coverage of thunderstorms over much of central Europe on Friday with widespread delays across the airspace.
Canadian smoke model forecast – air quality alerts continue from MN to the Chicago area to Northern MI. Fairly high concentrations of smoke will continue through the weekend.
Long range tropical outlook – week 2, indicates a low probability of TC development in the NE Gulf and Western Atlantic with odds > 50 percent of TC development in the Eastern Pacific. Interestingly, probability of below normal rainfall is likely from Vietnam to central India.
Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotal weather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center, weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.
